Fadón Adrián, EricaHerrera Lagranja, SaraLora, JorgeHormaza Urroz, José IgnacioRodrigo García, Francisco Javier2025-12-242025-12-242025-11-11Fadón, E., Herrera, S., Lora, J., Hormaza, J. I., & Rodrigo, J. (2025). Global warming constrains the climatic niche and adaptive potential of temperate Prunus species (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 5734030). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5734030https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5734030https://hdl.handle.net/10532/8075Rising temperatures are increasingly disrupting the phenological cycles of temperate Prunus species, leading to the progressive unviability of traditional orchards. Understanding the agroclimatic requirements of each cultivar is crucial for defining their optimal climatic niche and adaptation potential. Chill and heat requirements must be fulfilled to ensure proper release from winter dormancy and successful flower development in spring. However, the characterization of these requirements often yields contrasting results across regions. Here, we experimentally characterized the agroclimatic requirements of eight Prunus cultivars — one early- and one late-flowering cultivar of apricot, Japanese plum, peach, and sweet cherry— grown in twin orchards located in contrasting Mediterranean climates in Spain. All cultivars satisfied their chilling requirements in the temperate site, whereas most showed maladaptation in the warm site, ranging from irregular bud responses to complete mortality in high-chill cultivars. These findings highlight the limited plasticity of Prunus species under warmer conditions and underscore the urgency of implementing adaptation strategies, including low-chill breeding, dormancy-breaking technologies, and refined phenological models. Our results provide a framework to guide cultivar selection and orchard planning, ensuring the resilience of Prunus production under climate change scenarios.enAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spaintexto2025-11-1410.2139/ssrn.5734030PrunusSalida de la latenciaFenologíaCambio climáticoHambre ceroAcción por el clima