Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10532/3247
Title: Russian roulette at the trade table: a specific factors CGE analysis of an agri-food import ban
Authors: Boulanger, Pierre
Dudu, Hasan
Ferrari, Emanuele
Philippidis, George
Issue Date: 2016
Citation: Journal Of Agricultural Economics
Abstract: In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex-post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10532/3247
ISSN: 0021-857X
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
Appears in Collections:[DOCIART] Artículos científicos, técnicos y divulgativos

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