A Euro-Mediterranean deal in agro-food and fisheries trade: Long run impacts in Greece

Abstract

We employ a heavily modified ‘agricultural’ variant of the GTAP model and a realistic baseline scenario to assess the impact on the Greek economy from a hypothetical ‘hub and spoke’ and a ‘FTA’ EUMED agro-food and fisheries trade agreement. Long run estimates show that Greek agro-food and fisheries sectors are not seriously affected, where surprisingly, trade diversionary losses to Greece from the FTA scenario are minor given minimal south-south trade links between Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC). Further research shows that under complete CAP decoupling, notable additional welfare gains for MPC are realised, whilst Greece stands to lose approximately €300 million