Economic weights for traits of economic interest in dairy sheep breeding programs under the context of climate change

Abstract

Developing a breeding strategy involves the definition of a breeding objective and the estimation of economic weights of the traits that conform to the breeding objective. Climate change (CC) impacts production systems in many ways; on one side CC currently affects individual performances but also it creates a lot of uncertainty about future climatic and economic scenarios. This work aimed at estimating the economic weights of main traits of economic interest for dairy sheep breeding programs under different climatic scenarios. A deterministic bioeco- nomic model was developed to estimate the profit of a typical local sheep production system and derive economic values under some future breeding scenarios. Economic values of 0.96 €/l; 17.5€/%; and 18.5 €/% per ewe for milk yield and fat and protein contents, respectively, were obtained for the current scenario. Decays in production due to more frequent exposure to high temperatures in the mid-term were estimated at 0.5 to 1,5%, which would result in a reduction in the economic value of 1.24, 2.08 and 1.76% for milk yield and fat and protein contents, respectively, and this reduction could exceed 10% under worse scenarios. Consequently, it is crucial to assess potential economic losses in future CC scenarios and estimate the economic value of each breeding objective component. This approach is vital for adapting breeding strategies to forthcoming climatic scenarios, by putting emphasis on traits related to adaptation over those solely focused on production.