Scenar 2040: A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy

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dc.contributor.authorFellmann, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorTassinari, Gianmaria
dc.contributor.authorLasarte Lopez, Jesus
dc.contributor.authorRey Vicario, Dolores
dc.contributor.authorBeber, Caetano
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, Ana Luisa
dc.contributor.authorde Jong, Beyhan
dc.contributor.authorFerrari, Emanuele
dc.contributor.authorGocht, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorIsbasoiu, Ancuta
dc.contributor.authorKlinnert, Ana
dc.contributor.authorKremmydas, Dimitrios
dc.contributor.authorM´barek, Robert
dc.contributor.authorPhilippidis, George
dc.contributor.authorRokicki, Bartlomiej
dc.contributor.authorTillie, Pascal
dc.contributor.authorWeiss, Franz
dc.contributor.authorGenovese, Giampiero
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commission
dc.contributor.orcidPhilippidis, George [0000-0003-1727-2240]
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-30T10:40:11Z
dc.date.available2025-10-30T10:40:11Z
dc.date.issued2025-10-23
dc.date.updated2025-10-30T08:55:46Z
dc.description.abstractThe Scenar 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of two hypothetical scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its broader environment. The baseline (reference scenario) is calibrated to the 2023 EU Agricultural Outlook, and the current national CAP Strategic Plans serve as starting point for the shifts in the policy scenarios. In the first scenario support is directed towards CAP measures enhancing productivity and competitiveness, whereas the second scenario shifts support towards more environmental and climate-focused interventions. The study also includes a counterfactual NoCAP scenario, simulating the removal of the entire CAP framework. The study aims to contribute to policy discussions on the future of the CAP by providing quantitative insights into the general implications of alternative CAP trajectories. The scenario results underscore the CAP’s essential role for the EU’s agricultural sector and its broader socio-economic and environmental interlinkages across territories. The results indicate that the removal of the CAP framework would have considerable heterogeneous economic, environmental, and social impacts across the EU. The two alternative CAP scenarios reveal contrasted outcomes aligned with their respective narratives. The results highlight the CAP’s critical role, the complexity involved in balancing competing objectives, and confirm market fundamentals as primary drivers of production, although policy can significantly modulate outcomes.
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Commision - Joint Research Centre
dc.identifier.citationFellmann, T., Tassinari, G., Lasarte Lopez, J., Rey Vicario, D., Beber, C., Barbosa, A. L., De Jong, B., Ferrari, E., Gocht, A., Isbasoiu, A., Klinnert, A., Kremmydas, D., M'Barek, R., Philippidis, G., Rokicki, B., Tillie, P., Weiss, F., & Genovese, G. (2025). Scenar 2040 – A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/7381366
dc.identifier.doi10.2760/7381366
dc.identifier.isbn978-92-68-28748-4
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10532/7920
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherPublications Office of the European Union
dc.relation.citaSi
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/7381366
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.agrovocProductividad
dc.subject.agrovocImpacto ambiental
dc.subject.agrovocSector agrario
dc.subject.agrovocPlanificación agrícola
dc.subject.agrovocEstudio prospectivo
dc.subject.agrovocAnálisis cuantitativo
dc.subject.agrovocEvaluación de impacto
dc.subject.agrovocPolítica agrícola
dc.subject.sdgHambre cero
dc.subject.sdgAcción por el clima
dc.subject.sdgTrabajo decente y crecimiento económico
dc.subject.sdgProducción y consumo responsables
dc.titleScenar 2040: A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy
dc.typetexto
dc.typelibro
dc.type.hasVersionversión publicada

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