Bridging modelling and policy-making efforts to realise the European bioeconomy

Abstract

The European Bioeconomy Strategy aims to facilitate the transition from a take-make-dispose fossil economy into one fostering circular bio-based value chains linking sustainable land use with cutting-edge products. Optimised designs, implementation and monitoring rely on continuous interactions between policymakers and modellers who run multiple scenarios for environmentally, economically and socially desirable futures. This paper leverages a multi-layered framework that cross-references 39 policies and 32 models to assess how they address the five principle objectives of the Bioeconomy Strategy in terms of accompanying sectors, value-chains, and multi-dimensional indicators. The framework identifies gaps in bioeconomy knowledge both in policy and modelling. Overall, the analysis found little mention of the wide range of bio-based products, technologies and processes, bio-refineries, waste, and land conservation. Bio-based product policies can be simulated only in a limited number of models, compared, for example, to the wide range of modelling capacities that can model bioenergy. Additionally, in both policy and modelling realms, integration of market and biophysical drivers within the full scope of the value chain is scarce. Multidisciplinary studies combining multiple models perform best in this respect by integrating a more comprehensive range of relevant policies, bioeconomy drivers and indicators. Findings point to a more significant issue in policy-modelling information exchange, and this paper discusses the challenges and opportunities for future improvements in this collaboration.