Climate change threatens the viability of temperate fruit orchards in the mediterranean region

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dc.bibliographicCitation.conferencedate11-13/09/2024es_ES
dc.bibliographicCitation.conferencenameTropentag 2024de
dc.bibliographicCitation.conferenceplaceVienaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorCaspersen, Larses_ES
dc.contributor.authorSchiffers, Katjaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorPicornell, Antonioes_ES
dc.contributor.authorShinwari, Atifullahes_ES
dc.contributor.authorEgea, José A.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorRuiz, Davides_ES
dc.contributor.authorDelgado, Álvaroes_ES
dc.contributor.authorBen Mimoun, Mehdies_ES
dc.contributor.authorEl Yaacoubi, Adnanees_ES
dc.contributor.authorKodad, Ossamaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorBenmoussa, Ossamaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorFadón Adrián, Ericaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorRodrigo García, Francisco Javieres_ES
dc.contributor.authorLuedeling, Eikees_ES
dc.coverage.spatialTúnezes_ES
dc.coverage.spatialEspañaes_ES
dc.coverage.spatialMarruecoses_ES
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-11T07:29:27Z
dc.date.available2024-09-11T07:29:27Z
dc.date.issued2024es_ES
dc.date.updated2024-09-11T07:14:07Z
dc.description.abstractSouthern Spain and northern Africa have many productive orchards of temperate fruit and nut tree species with high economic relevance. However, these orchards are threatened by rising temperatures both during the main cultivation season and during the winter months. Most temperate-zone trees enter a dormant stage around the time of leaf fall and then require exposure to chilling and heat to resume growth, flower, and ultimately bear fruits. Changes in temperature during the winter can lead to shifts in bloom timing. When agroclimatic requirements are not fully met, trees may show irregular or inhibited flowering, which may entail reduced yield and compromised fruit quality. To project future climate change impacts on Spanish and north African orchards, we calibrated the phenology model PhenoFlex with flowering data of four temperate fruit and nut tree species (apple, apricot, almond, pistachio) from four locations in southern Spain, Morocco, and Tunisia, covering 49 cultivars in total. We predicted bloom dates and potential bloom failure rates (in case agroclimatic requirements are not fulfiled) for present and future conditions. We projected bloom dates and potential bloom failure rates for two periods (2035 – 2065, 2070 – 2100), four climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585), and a collection of global circulation models (14 – 18, depending on the scenario). We observed two main patterns when comparing the projected bloom dates under future and present conditions: unchanged bloom times for almonds in Morocco and moderate to strong delays in flowering for almonds and pistachios in Tunisia, almonds and apricots in southern Spain, as well as apples in Morocco. Additionally, we projected increasing rates of unfulfiled thermal requirements for several apricot cultivars in southern Spain in the short run (2035 – 2065), and for pistachios and almonds in Tunisia and southern Spain in the long run (2070 – 2100) under pessimistic climate scenarios. We observed significant differences among cultivars in the phenology shift and bloom failure rates for apricots and almonds, indicating considerable variation among cultivars in their resilience to warming winters.en
dc.description.otherAgroclimatic requirementsen
dc.description.otherClimate change adaptationen
dc.description.otherDormancyen
dc.description.otherDynamic modelen
dc.description.otherPhenologyen
dc.description.sponsorshipThis poster is based upon work from the AdaMedOr project, funded by the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean (PRIMA), a programme supported under H2020, the European Union’s Framework program for research and innovation, for funding this research within the AdaMedOr project (grant number 01DH20012 of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research)es_ES
dc.identifier.citationCaspersen, L., Schiffers, K., Picornell, A., Shinwari, A., Egea, J. A., Ruiz, D., Delgado, A., Ben Mimoun, M., El Yaacoubi, A., Kodad, O., Benmoussa, O., Fadón, E., Rodrigo, J., & Luedeling, E. (2024). Climate change threatens the viability of temperate fruit orchards in the mediterranean region. Tropentag 2024 (Viena. Austria. 2024).
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10532/7228
dc.language.isoenes_ES
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Spaines_ES
dc.subject.agrovocFruticulturaes
dc.subject.agrovocTemperaturaes
dc.subject.agrovocFenologíaes
dc.subject.agrovocCambio climáticoes
dc.subject.agrovocÁrboles frutaleses
dc.subject.otherÁrboles frutales
dc.subject.otherCambio climático
dc.subject.otherFenología
dc.subject.otherFruticultura
dc.subject.otherTemperatura
dc.titleClimate change threatens the viability of temperate fruit orchards in the mediterranean regionen
dc.typeConference Material*
dc.type.refereedRefereedes_ES
dc.type.specifiedPosteres_ES

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