Contrasting Responses to Climate Change – Predicting Bloom of Major Temperate Fruit Tree Species in the Mediterranean Region and Central Europe

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dc.bibliographicCitation.titleAgricultural and Forest Meteorologyen
dc.contributor.authorCaspersen, Larses_ES
dc.contributor.authorSchiffers, Katjaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorPicornell, Antonioes_ES
dc.contributor.authorEgea, José A. es_ES
dc.contributor.authorDelgado, Álvaroes_ES
dc.contributor.authorEl Yaacoubi, Adnanees_ES
dc.contributor.authorBenmoussa, Haïfaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorRodrigo García, Francisco Javieres_ES
dc.contributor.authorFadón Adrián, Ericaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorBen Mimoun, Mehdies_ES
dc.contributor.authorGhrab, Mohamedes_ES
dc.contributor.authorKodad, Ossamaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorRuiz, Davides_ES
dc.contributor.authorLuedeling, Eikees_ES
dc.contributor.funderPartnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area
dc.contributor.funderAgencia Estatal de Investigación
dc.coverage.spatialCiencia vegetales_ES
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-30T09:42:02Z
dc.date.available2025-02-06T11:42:08Z
dc.date.available2025-10-30T09:42:02Z
dc.date.issued2025es_ES
dc.date.updated2025-02-05T13:00:53Z
dc.description.abstractOne common manifestation of climate change is advancing leaf emergence and bloom in temperate-zone trees. However, under conditions where warming winters compromise the trees’ ability to fulfill their chilling requirements, spring phenology may instead be delayed. In severe cases, certain development stages, such as bloom, may not be fully reached. Understanding how particular tree species or cultivars respond to warming is crucial for adaptation planning but producing accurate predictions has proven difficult. We addressed this challenge by calibrating the novel PhenoFlex phenology modeling framework with long-term bloom data for 110 cultivars of seven temperate fruit and nut tree species (apple, pear, apricot, sweet cherry, plum, almond, pistachio), from Spain, Tunisia, Morocco, and Germany. We used the resulting models to project bloom dates and potential bloom failure – when agroclimatic requirements for flowering are not met – for current conditions and future scenarios for two time periods (2035–2065, 2070–2100), four warming scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) and multiple global circulation models for six study locations across four countries. We identified three general trends: advancing bloom dates for all species in Germany, delayed bloom 36 for most species in southern Spain, Tunisia, and Morocco, and largely unchanged bloom dates in northern Spain and for almonds in Morocco. In the short term (2035–2065), agroclimatic requirements for most species are expected to be met, except for apricots in southern Spain and pistachios in central Tunisia. Predicted bloom failure rates spiked for most species in Tunisia, Morocco, and southern Spain under pessimistic warming scenarios in the long term (2070–2100) and, to a lesser extent, in northern Spain. Our results revealed cultivar-specific differences in bloom date shifts and failure rates, indicating variation among cultivars in their adaptability to winter warming. These information may guide the design of climate-resilient orchards based on cultivars aligned with projected agroclimatic conditions.en
dc.description.otheragroclimatic requirementsen
dc.description.otherdormancyen
dc.description.othertemperate fruit treeen
dc.description.otherClimate adaptationen
dc.description.otherPhenologyen
dc.description.otherwinter chillen
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area (PRIMA), a program supported under H2020, the European Union’s Framework program for research and innovation, for funding this research within the AdaMedOr project (grant number 01DH20012 of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research). We also thank national donors from the partner countries: the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Agencia Estatalde Investigación 10.13039/501100011033) and NextGeneration EU/PRTR (grants PCI2020-111966 and PID2020-115473RR-I00 in the case of CITA; grant PCI2020-112113 in the case of CEBAS); the Ministère de l’Enseignement Supérieure et de la Recherche Scientifique et de l’Innovation, Direction de la Recherche Scientifique et de l’Innovation(MENF-PESRS/DRSI- Maroc) in the case of Morocco; and the Tunisian Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in the case of Tunisia. A. Picornell was supported by a postdoctoral grant financed by the University of Malaga for a research stay at the working group of Horticultural Sciences, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, and by a postdoctoral grant financed by the Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades (Junta de Andalucía, POSTDOC_21_00056)
dc.description.statusPublishedes_ES
dc.identifier.citationCaspersen, L., Schiffers, K., Picornell, A., Egea, J. A., Delgado, A., El Yaacoubi, A., Benmoussa, H., Rodrigo, J., Fadón, E., Ben Mimoun, M., Ghrab, M., Kodad, O., Ruiz, D., & Luedeling, E. (2025). Contrasting responses to climate change – predicting bloom of major temperate fruit tree species in the Mediterranean region and Central Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 375, 110859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110859
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110859
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10532/7476.2
dc.language.isoenes_ES
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Agreement/EC/PRIMA//ES/Adapting Mediterranean Orchards – science-based design of resilient fruit tree portfolios for the Mediterranean region/ADAMEDOR
dc.relation.citaSi
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5106075es_ES
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110859
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110859es_ES
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.agrovocAdaptación al cambio climáticoes
dc.subject.agrovocNecesidades climáticases
dc.subject.agrovocInviernoes
dc.subject.agrovocFrutas de clima templadoes
dc.subject.agrovocFenologíaes
dc.subject.agrovocDormiciónes
dc.subject.agrovocFloraciónes
dc.subject.otherAdaptación Al Cambio Climático
dc.subject.otherAgro Climatología
dc.subject.otherDormición
dc.subject.otherEnfriamiento
dc.subject.otherFenología
dc.subject.sdgHambre cero
dc.subject.sdgAcción por el clima
dc.titleContrasting Responses to Climate Change – Predicting Bloom of Major Temperate Fruit Tree Species in the Mediterranean Region and Central Europeen
dc.typetexto
dc.typerevista
dc.typeartículo
dc.typeartículo original
dc.type.refereedRefereedes_ES
dc.type.specifiedArticlees_ES

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