Alternative Global Transition Pathways to 2020: Prospects for the Bioeconomy : An application of the MAGNET model with SDG insights

Abstract

In this study we build model-based scenarios following the European Commission's Global Energy and Climate Outlook to 2050, which constitutes a central element of EU's vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy. Results of this study indicate that in the reference scenario (REF) economic growth in developing and emerging countries remains strong towards 2050, while global income disparities persist. Over time, the economy is projected to become more energy-efficient, creating more wealth per GHG emissions. However, in absolute terms, GHG emissions keep growing by one third. The global food production increases by about 60% to feed the growing and richer world population, requiring 8% more land and related resources. The two Bioeconomy Strategy objectives on climate change and reduction of fossil-based energy use are largely reached. Important investments in innovation are a precondition for making these fundamental changes in the economy. It is accompanied by benefits also for resource usage, e.g. less land is used due to overall efficiency improvements and reduced climate change induced land yield reductions. The potential usage of this land must be carefully evaluated given the expected increase in land use over time. The circular bioeconomy has adequate macroeconomic conditions to evolve, as the high carbon price makes innovative bio-based industries more competitive in replacing conventional fossil-based inputs to petroleum blending, aviation and chemicals sectors.