Lost and gained: climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain

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dc.contributor.authorBlanco Domínguez, Minia
dc.contributor.authorGarcía Barreda, Sergi
dc.contributor.authorSánchez Durán, Sergio
dc.contributor.authorSerrano Notivoli, Roberto
dc.contributor.funderAgencia Estatal de Investigación
dc.contributor.funderGobierno de Aragón
dc.contributor.orcidGarcía Barreda, Sergi [0000-0002-7248-234X]
dc.contributor.orcidSánchez Durán, Sergio [0000-0003-4331-9794]
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-06T17:36:27Z
dc.date.available2025-11-06T17:36:27Z
dc.date.issued2025-10-23
dc.date.updated2025-10-07T07:46:39Z
dc.descriptionVersión original del autor
dc.description.abstractSpain is the world’s leading producer of black truffle Tuber melanosporum Vittad. because of a distinct combination of edaphic properties and climatic conditions in the growing season. Relatively cold winters and moderate summer precipitation are key for a productive harvest; however, climate projections foresee a spatially diverse warming, favoring extreme temperatures and drought conditions which will affect the future distribution of the species. We used a combination of 3 machine-learning-based species distribution modeling methods—maxent, random forest, and boosted regression trees—to estimate the current and future habitat potentiality in mainland Spain, based on historical observations and a collection of environmental variables previously demonstrated as critical parameters for the modeling of black truffle presence. Results showed a notable change in the distribution under 2 future scenarios, with a total loss of between 22 and 32% of the current habitat, especially in zones with hot temperatures and low precipitation. This was partially compensated with the colonization of new areas (+25%) in colder and more humid climates. Overall, the greatest changes in future distribution scenarios were associated with maximum summer temperatures, summer precipitation, elevation, and edaphic pH. While significant differences were found in the contribution of the predictors to the 3 models, the spatial distribution results were similar. By illustrating the climate-driven redistribution of a high-value crop, our findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological modeling into agricultural policy and land-use planning to ensure long-term resilience of rural economies.
dc.description.peerreviewedSi
dc.description.sponsorshipR.S.N. cuenta con la financiación de la subvención RYC2021-034330-I, financiada por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y «European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR». También cuenta con el apoyo del Gobierno de Aragón, a través del «Programa de grupos de investigación» (grupo S74_23R, «Clima, Agua, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales»).
dc.identifier.citationBlanco-Domínguez, M., García-Barreda, S., Sánchez, S., & Serrano-Notivoli, R. (2025). Lost and gained: Climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain. Climate Research, 95, 27-41. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01757
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/cr01757
dc.identifier.issn1616-1572
dc.identifier.issn0936-577X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10532/7953
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-Research Science Publishing
dc.relation.citaSi
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.agrovocTuber melanosporum
dc.subject.agrovocAprendizaje automático
dc.subject.agrovocDistribución espacial
dc.subject.agrovocModelización del medio ambiente
dc.subject.agrovocMejoramiento del habitat
dc.subject.sdgAcción por el clima
dc.subject.sdgVida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.subject.sdgProducción y consumo responsables
dc.titleLost and gained: climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain
dc.typetexto
dc.typerevista
dc.typeartículo
dc.typeartículo original
dc.type.hasVersionversión original del autor

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