This is not the latest version of this item. The latest version can be found here.
Lost and gained: climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2025-10-23
Authors
Blanco Domínguez, MiniaGarcía Barreda, Sergi
Sánchez Durán, Sergio
Serrano Notivoli, Roberto
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Inter-Research Science Publishing
Typology
texto , revista , artículo , artículo originalAbstract
Spain is the world’s leading producer of black truffle Tuber melanosporum Vittad. because of a distinct combination of edaphic properties and climatic conditions in the growing season. Relatively cold winters and moderate summer precipitation are key for a productive harvest; however, climate projections foresee a spatially diverse warming, favoring extreme temperatures and drought conditions which will affect the future distribution of the species. We used a combination of 3 machine-learning-based species distribution modeling methods—maxent, random forest, and boosted regression trees—to estimate the current and future habitat potentiality in mainland Spain, based on historical observations and a collection of environmental variables previously demonstrated as critical parameters for the modeling of black truffle presence. Results showed a notable change in the distribution under 2 future scenarios, with a total loss of between 22 and 32% of the current habitat, especially in zones with hot temperatures and low precipitation. This was partially compensated with the colonization of new areas (+25%) in colder and more humid climates. Overall, the greatest changes in future distribution scenarios were associated with maximum summer temperatures, summer precipitation, elevation, and edaphic pH. While significant differences were found in the contribution of the predictors to the 3 models, the spatial distribution results were similar. By illustrating the climate-driven redistribution of a high-value crop, our findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological modeling into agricultural policy and land-use planning to ensure long-term resilience of rural economies.
Description
Versión original del autor
Keywords
Bibliographic citation
Blanco-Domínguez, M., García-Barreda, S., Sánchez, S., & Serrano-Notivoli, R. (2025). Lost and gained: Climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain. Climate Research, 95, 27-41. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01757
AGROVOC subjects
Tuber melanosporumAprendizaje automático
Distribución espacial
Modelización del medio ambiente
Mejoramiento del habitat
Sponsorship
R.S.N. cuenta con la financiación de la subvención RYC2021-034330-I, financiada por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y «European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR». También cuenta con el apoyo del Gobierno de Aragón, a través del «Programa de grupos de investigación» (grupo S74_23R, «Clima, Agua, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales»).