Global warming constrains the climatic niche and adaptive potential of temperate Prunus species
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Date
2025-11-11
Authors
Fadón Adrián, EricaHerrera Lagranja, Sara
Lora, Jorge
Hormaza Urroz, José Ignacio
Rodrigo García, Francisco Javier
Journal Title
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Publisher
Elsevier B.V.
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texto , artículo preliminarAbstract
Rising temperatures are increasingly disrupting the phenological cycles of temperate Prunus species, leading to the progressive unviability of traditional orchards. Understanding the agroclimatic requirements of each cultivar is crucial for defining their optimal climatic niche and adaptation potential. Chill and heat requirements must be fulfilled to ensure proper release from winter dormancy and successful flower development in spring. However, the characterization of these requirements often yields contrasting results across regions. Here, we experimentally characterized the agroclimatic requirements of eight Prunus cultivars — one early- and one late-flowering cultivar of apricot, Japanese plum, peach, and sweet cherry— grown in twin orchards located in contrasting Mediterranean climates in Spain. All cultivars satisfied their chilling requirements in the temperate site, whereas most showed maladaptation in the warm site, ranging from irregular bud responses to complete mortality in high-chill cultivars. These findings highlight the limited plasticity of Prunus species under warmer conditions and underscore the urgency of implementing adaptation strategies, including low-chill breeding, dormancy-breaking technologies, and refined phenological models. Our results provide a framework to guide cultivar selection and orchard planning, ensuring the resilience of Prunus production under climate change scenarios.
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Bibliographic citation
Fadón, E., Herrera, S., Lora, J., Hormaza, J. I., & Rodrigo, J. (2025). Global warming constrains the climatic niche and adaptive potential of temperate Prunus species (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 5734030). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5734030
AGROVOC subjects
PrunusSalida de la latencia
Fenología
Cambio climático
Sponsorship
Esta investigación fue financiada por el proyecto ADAPFRUTCC, que cuenta con el apoyo de la Fundación Biodiversidad del Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico, a través de la convocatoria de ayudas para la ejecución de proyectos que contribuyen al Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (2021-2030); y por los proyectos PID2020-115473RR-I00 y PID2022-141851OB-I00, financiados por ICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/, así como por el Grupo Consolidado A12–17R, financiado por el Gobierno de Aragón – Fondo Social Europeo, “El FSE invierte en tu futuro”.